IMF raises global growth forecast to 3.2 pct in 2025

According to the report, advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.6 percent in 2025, while emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow by 4.2 percent -- both 0.1 percentage point higher than previously projected.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blog post that the increase in U.S. tariffs and its effect have been "smaller than expected so far." But given that the effective tariff rate remains high and trade tensions continue, with other factors simultaneously at play, it would be premature and incorrect to claim that the tariff surge has had no impact on global growth, he wrote.

However, it pointed out that the tariff shock is further dimming growth prospects, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

"We expect a slowdown in the second half of this year, with only a partial recovery in 2026," Gourinchas wrote.

The IMF suggests that resolving policy uncertainty, raising total factor productivity through artificial intelligence (AI), and establishing a pragmatic and adaptive multilateral system that fosters cooperation can help meet economic challenges.